Regional Breakdown

It was a historic March for the High Plains, but not in a good way. The effects of the warm and dry winter have begun to rear their ugly head, with record-setting wildfires in Nebraska, abysmally low snowpack in the Rockies, and the rapid expansion of drought. Adding insult to injury, record warm temperatures and zero to near-zero precipitation were present in a large portion of the region.

For Nebraska, this year is now the worst on record for wildfires, and all it took was a single month. The previous record was in 2012 when 500,000 acres (202,343 hectares) burned, while this March was nearly double that amount. The largest this month was the Morrill Fire, which began on March 12th and burned over 640,000 acres (258,999 hectares). In just 12 hours, it traveled over 70 miles (113 km) and led to multiple evacuations. Despite crushing the record for the largest wildfire in state history and destroying dozens of structures, only one fatality was reported. Several other large fires were reported this month, including the Cottonwood Fire, which burned nearly 130,000 acres (52,609 hectares).

To call the snowpack in the Rockies poor, in particular Colorado, would be an understatement. Driven by the warmer temperatures this month, most of the snowpack in the state has melted out or close to it. Of the 46 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the state, 43 were at their record low at the end of the month. The most concerning part is the fact that several basins have melted out before the average date of their peak snow water equivalent (SWE). This early and rapid melt-off could potentially have serious ramifications in the coming months, not only for Colorado but also for the surrounding states that depend on the water from the Rockies.

Temperature and Precipitation Overview

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (left) and percent of normal precipitation (right) for March 2026 in the High Plains region. Maps
produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current .

Precipitation

After an exceptionally dry winter, March was extremely disappointing in terms of precipitation. Most of western Kansas, as well as large chunks of every state, recorded trace or zero precipitation this month. Since the beginning of the water year (October 1st), some areas in the central part of the region have recorded less than 1.5 inches (3.81 cm).

In Kansas, it was all or nothing this month. A stretch from Wichita to Kansas City received anywhere from 2 to over 6 inches (5.08 to 15.24 cm) of precipitation this month, while anywhere west of Salina received zero to near-zero amounts. Ottawa recorded its second wettest March with 6.66 inches (16.92 cm), with most of this falling on the 11th. Nearby towns such as Bucyrus, Olathe, Overland Park, and Spring Hill were all equally wet, with most of those locations observing near or above 5 inches (12.7 cm) of rain. On the opposite side of the state, numerous places reported no or trace precipitation. Among those observing no precipitation were Greensburg, Tribune, Wallace, and Ulysses. Those marginally better with trace amounts were Dodge City, Goodland, Hays, and Russell. For Dodge City, this tied 1997 and 1893 as the driest March and driest month in the springtime on record.

Moving north into Nebraska, the story was similar to that of Kansas. Much of the state observed less than 0.5 inches (12.7 mm), with the southwestern portion of the state recording no to near-zero amounts. Culbertson did not report any precipitation this month, which happened only one other time in March back in 1895. Just down the road in McCook, only trace amounts were reported to rank second driest. Interestingly enough, this was the first time in over 130 years for the town that a spring month has recorded only trace amounts. Notable towns in the area that recorded less than 0.05 (1.27 mm) inches included Imperial, Ogallala, Minden, and Oxford. For snowfall, Scottsbluff had its lowest January-March snowfall on record, with only 4.4 inches (11.18 cm) falling and well below the average of 19.6 inches (49.78 cm). This is highly concerning, considering this is their snowiest part of the year.

Elsewhere in the region, record to near-record dryness was observed. In Colorado, this included Alamosa, Del Norte, Grand Junction, and Lamar, ranking as the driest this month. Others in the state ranking in the top five driest included Aspen, Hayden, Meeker, and Rifle. Up north in Wyoming, Casper and Pinedale ranked as the second driest.

Regional Precipitation

Above: Total precipitation in inches (left) and departure from normal precipitation in inches (right) for March 2026. These maps are produced by
HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current.

Temperatures

The persistent warmth in the High Plains has continued into yet another month, with highs beginning to reach summertime levels extremely early. Colorado and Wyoming cannot catch a break, with both states once again being the warmest, with areas 12 degrees F (6.7 degrees C) above normal. For Kansas and Nebraska, both states were 6 degrees F (3.3 degrees C) above normal for the most part.

To say Colorado was warm this month would be an understatement. Every major location recorded its warmest March, with some, such as Grand Junction, breaking their previous record by over 4 degrees F (2.2 degrees C). Within the state, an absurd 208 long-term (at least 30 years of data) stations broke or tied their monthly record. This is punctuated by the station Grand Junction 6ESE recording the warmest March on record for the state, with an average temperature of 55.7 degrees F (13.2 degrees C). This was primarily driven by abnormally warm highs, with locations recording multiple days at or above 90 degrees F (32.2 degrees C). The back half of the month was historically hot, with four of the five warmest March temperatures in the state being recorded. This included a tie for the warmest temperature ever for the month of 99 degrees F (37.2 degrees C), recorded at Campo and Burlington on the 27th and 26th, respectively. Another great example is from Pueblo, which had never reached 90 degrees F (32.2 degrees C) in March and proceeded to do it three times this month. Not only that, but seven out of the ten warmest temperatures in March at the station were observed this year.  

The story was similar in Wyoming, where most of the major locations ranked as warmest or in the top three. Cheyenne, Casper, Laramie, Lander, and Thermopolis all ranked warmest, with several of these locations reaching 80 degrees F (26.7 degrees C) for the first time ever. Casper not only surpassed 80 degrees (26.7 degrees C) for the first time on the 19th but proceeded to do it four times by the end of the month. Thermopolis had only hit the mark once before, back in 2012, but did it six times this year. In the eastern half of the state, Redbird and Lingle recorded highs above 90 degrees F (32.2 degrees C) for the first time ever in March for the state. These are just scratching the surface for a historically warm month in the western half of the region.

Down in Kansas, the warmth was record-breaking but not to the extent of Colorado and Wyoming. Goodland tied for its warmest March, while Dodge City, Salina, Topeka, and Wichita ranked in the top five. Prior to this year, only two stations had reached 100 degrees F (37.8 degrees C), and it was back in 1907. A total of seven stations tied or surpassed that this month, including the new state record high of 104 degrees F (40 degrees C) in Ashland on the 27th. For the number of days above 90 degrees F (32.2 degrees C), most stations in the state observed their record or were very close. 

Drought Conditions

Drought across the region continued to expand and intensify, with the most significant changes in Colorado. As snowfall deficits continue to grow in the western half of the region, the situation becomes increasingly dire. Overall, the percentage of the region in D0 to D4 (abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions) increased by nearly 13 percent.

The drought situation in Colorado spiraled out of control this month in response to the continued warm and dry conditions. D4 expanded nearly 21 percent this month alone, which is one of the largest one-month increases in state history. Several small pockets are present in the southern half of the state, but the largest encompasses most of the northwestern corner. Extreme drought (D3) also expanded close to 38 percent, with 48 percent of the state now engulfed.  

To the north in Wyoming, drought conditions also intensified dramatically this month, and several areas of D4 were introduced. D3 expanded over 26 percent this month, predominantly in the eastern half of the state. Severe drought (D2) also jumped close to 30 percent, while moderate drought (D1) encompasses over 91 percent of the state. Across the border to the east, the story was similar in Nebraska. D3 and D2 jumped by 37 and 46 percent, respectively, with D2 covering 86 percent of the state. Elsewhere in the region, both improvements and degradation were observed. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook for April, drought is likely to persist throughout most of the region. 

U.S. Drought Monitor	Drought Monitor 1-Month Change

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor information, please see: http://
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, a La Niña Advisory and an El Niño Watch.  For more information, visit: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood outlook indicates increased chances of minor flooding in Kansas through the end of June. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be elevated in Colorado and Western Kansas in April, June, and July.  

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal temperatures across the majority of the United States. In the High Plains, warmer temperatures are favored everywhere except North Dakota.

Precipitation

The precipitation outlook for the next three months indicates above-normal precipitation along the eastern seaboard, while below-normal precipitation is favored for the western United States. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the drought-stricken states of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming.

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on March 31st indicates drought will likely intensify and develop across eastern Colorado and western Kansas.