Significant Events for March - May 2026

Highlights for the Basin

Temperatures in March were historically warm, with records shattered across the region. In Wyoming, Redbird and Lingle hit 90 degrees F for the first time in state history, and the average high was up to 20 degrees F above normal. The story was similar in Colorado, where seven out of the top ten warmest daily March temperatures were recorded this year, and 208 stations tied or broke their monthly record. Meanwhile, the statewide average maximum temperature beat the previous record set back in 1910 by nearly 5 degrees F. Across the border in Kansas, it had been 119 years since Kansas reached 100 degrees F in March, and it happened multiple times this year. For some within the Basin, these were the warmest temperatures they experienced all spring.

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Driven by the historic warmth in March, this spring ranked as the third warmest on record for the Basin. This trend continued into April, with Colorado recording its warmest March-April and Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming ranking in the top five. Despite temperatures in May being near-normal across the Basin, several locations in Wyoming set their all-time warmest temperature for the month.

This spring was dry, particularly in Kansas and Nebraska, with 22 counties ranking in the top five driest. Minimal precipitation fell across the western half of both states in March and April, with 14 counties ranking driest. In May, precipitation was scattered across the Basin.

Changes in Drought Conditions

June 3, 2025 to June 2, 2026

The map above shows the areas of increasing (yellow shading) and decreasing (green shading) categories of drought. Drought conditions are significantly worse this year compared to 2025, with parts of Wyoming up to four classes lower than last year due to record dryness. The worst conditions are found in western Nebraska, with two separate areas of D4.

Regional Impacts for March - May 2026

Wildfires

March was a historical month for wildfires in Nebraska, with nearly double the acres burned compared to the previous record year of 2012. The Morrill Fire surpassed that by itself, while the Cottonwood Fire burned another 130,000 acres. Numerous evacuation orders were issued, and the Morrill Fire led to one fatality. Several other larger fires took place this spring in the state, with over a million acres total burned in Nebraska.

Water Resources

The rapid snowpack melt-off, below-normal precipitation, and warmer temperatures have led the USACE to project runoff at 67 percent of average. At the end of May, soil moisture across drought-stricken Wyoming and western Nebraska was well below normal. Streamflow, which has been poor for several years, is near or at record lows. Irrigation has commenced, and the amount of water available is expected to be lower than normal this summer.  

Agriculture

Winter wheat headed out much earlier this year, while the number of acres being abandoned is close to the highest percentage since the Dust Bowl. Yields are expected to be down 40 percent in Colorado and Nebraska compared to last year and 31 percent lower in Kansas. Drought conditions this spring have led to a sharp increase in the number of cattle being sold off. The strong winds in North Dakota led to soil loss and forced some to replant crops.

Regional Outlook for July - September 2026

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the outlook for the upcoming season indicates increased chances of above-normal temperatures across the western portions of the Basin. Increased chances of above-normal precipitation are present across Colorado and Wyoming, hinting at the possibility of an active monsoon season. The rest of the basin has equal chances of above, below, or near-normal precipitation.

El Niño has emerged in early June and is likely to strengthen over the coming months. Wildfire potential is expected to be elevated this summer in parts of Colorado, the Dakotas, and Wyoming. Due to drought and a late freeze this spring, pasture and hay yields will likely be below average.