Weekly High Plains Drought Update - July 12, 2018

It was a hot and dry week for the majority of the High Plains with several pockets of heavy rainfall. After several weeks of beneficial rainfall, severe drought (D2) was removed and only abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions remained over northern North Dakota and eastern South Dakota on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Heavy rains in previous weeks led to drought reduction in southwest Kansas, with only a patch of D1 and D0 conditions remaining. Eastern Kansas continued to remain dry, while D2 and D1 conditions continued to expand. Colorado experienced rapidly worsening conditions, which prompted the expansion of extreme drought (D3), D2, and D1 in the west and the introduction of exceptional drought (D4) into southeastern Colorado. Recent dryness led to the expansion of D0 conditions across southwestern Wyoming.

According to the USDA’s Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, the percent of topsoil and subsoil moisture rated short to very short increased in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming after this dry week. These dry conditions, along with heat, continued to take their toll on vegetation conditions in Colorado and eastern Kansas, as depicted by the VegDRI map below. Pasture conditions remained at 51% poor to very poor in Colorado for the second week and more than a quarter of Kansas’s pastures were rated poor to very poor as well. The corn and soybean crop has also been affected by the dryness, but was faring well for the most part. The percent of the corn crop in poor to very poor condition per state was as follows: Colorado (7%), Kansas (16%), Nebraska (3%), North Dakota (1%), and South Dakota (6%). The percent of the soybean crop in poor to very poor condition was as follows: Kansas (11%), Nebraska (4%), North Dakota (3%), and South Dakota (8%).

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures in western and central Wyoming, western Colorado, and southern Kansas. Chances for below-normal temperatures are present in Nebraska, South Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and northern Kansas. Chances for above-normal precipitation are present in Kansas, Colorado, western Nebraska, and southeast Wyoming, while chances for below-normal precipitation are present in North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, and northwestern Wyoming. The 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast indicates a likelihood of precipitation for the High Plains region, with the greatest amounts expected across Nebraska and drought-stricken areas of southwest Colorado.