Weekly High Plains Drought Update - June 7, 2018

It was a warmer than normal week with below-normal precipitation for much of the High Plains region. However, localized heavy rainfall in north central North Dakota helped alleviate severe drought (D2) conditions while also trimming down moderate drought (D1) conditions along the western border of North Dakota. D2 conditions were introduced into the area surrounding Aberdeen, SD while there was an expansion of abnormally dry (D0) conditions into Mellette County, SD. There was also a slight expansion of extreme drought (D3) in eastern Colorado. Areas of Colorado and Kansas are now experiencing long-term drought impacts due to being in drought since last fall. Typically, this means the region may be experiencing hydrological and ecological impacts in addition to impacts on agriculture and grasslands. Stress to vegetation in these areas is indicated by the current Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) map, a tool developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center and several partners to depict vegetation stress across the contiguous U.S. on a weekly basis (see image below).

Localized heavy amounts of rainfall led to improved topsoil moisture in North Dakota, while lack of rainfall and above normal temperatures led to the depletion of topsoil moisture in the rest of the High Plains. According to this week’s USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, pasture conditions worsened in Colorado and South Dakota but significantly improved in Kansas and North Dakota. Winter wheat conditions continued to worsen as well. The following indicates the percent of each state’s winter wheat crop rated poor to very poor: Colorado (22%), Kansas (49%), Nebraska (8%), and South Dakota (12%).

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures for a majority of the High Plains region, while below-normal temperatures are favored in western North Dakota and northwestern Wyoming. Below-normal precipitation is favored in the western Dakotas, western Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and eastern Wyoming. Above-normal precipitation is likely for eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska. The 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast indicates a likelihood of precipitation in most of the High Plains region except for central to western Wyoming and northwest Colorado. The greatest amounts can be expected in eastern portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas.