Weekly High Plains Drought Update - May 31, 2018

It was a warmer than average week with variable precipitation across the High Plains region. Heavy rain fell across western Kansas, western Nebraska, and eastern Wyoming, prompting a reduction in area of Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions in western Kansas, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Localized amounts of heavier rainfall fell in central Colorado and just south of Kansas City, Kansas causing the removal of D0 conditions. Areas in the extreme western parts of the Dakotas also received above average rainfall, which reduced the area experiencing D1 and D0 conditions. However, dryness continued in much of the rest of the Dakotas where drought conditions expanded, most notably in north-central North Dakota where severe drought (D2) conditions expanded southward. With record-breaking temperatures and continued dryness south of Omaha, D1 conditions have been expanded in southeast Nebraska.

Below normal precipitation and high temperatures led to depletion in topsoil and subsoil moisture throughout Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. According to this week’s USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, the percent of topsoil moisture rated short to very short is as follows: 22% in Nebraska, 37% in North Dakota, and 18% in South Dakota. Subsoil moisture was even further depleted in these states, as it was rated 29% short to very short in Nebraska, 49% short to very short in North Dakota, and 26% short to very short in South Dakota. In Colorado, pasture conditions worsened with 37% of the state’s pastures in poor to very poor condition. Winter wheat in Kansas remained near 50% in poor to very poor condition as well.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures for the majority of the High Plains region, with chances of below normal temperatures for extreme northern North Dakota. The CPC also indicates increased chances of below-normal precipitation in Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, northern Colorado, and southwest South Dakota with slight chances of above normal precipitation for much of North Dakota. The 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast indicates a likelihood of precipitation in most of the High Plains region except for southeastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle, with the greatest amounts expected in North Dakota and eastern Nebraska.