Weekly High Plains Drought Update - November 9, 2017

Drought in the High Plains persists, but improvements were depicted in Montana by the U.S Drought Monitor this week. With high percentages of normal precipitation in western and central Montana, the area in extreme drought (D3) was reduced by 2% and the extreme drought (D2) area reduced by 9%. Light snow fell across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska, but it was not enough to warrant changes in the U.S. Drought Monitor depiction in these areas this week. Most of the High Plains experienced cooler temperatures, with parts of Montana recording up to 25°F below normal.

While the cold damaged the winter wheat crop in parts of South Dakota, winter wheat conditions in the High Plains were fairly good elsewhere. The following statistics represent current percentages of winter wheat in poor to very poor condition: Colorado (6%), Kansas (11%), Montana (10%), Nebraska (11%), and South Dakota (43%).

It is that time of year when snowpack begins to build in the mountains and become an important indicator of drought conditions. The mountain snowpack is off to a good start in Colorado and Wyoming this year. Colorado has reported the following Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) percentages: South Platte (116%), North Platte (132%) and Arkansas (95%) Rivers.  Wyoming also reported the following SWE percentages: Belle Fourche (400%), Big Horn (150%), Cheyenne (83%), Laramie (158%), Little Snake (101%), Lower North Platte (60%), Powder (141%), Shoshone (244%), South Platte (188%), Wind (168%), and Yellowstone (229%).

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s 6 - 10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures for Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, southern North Dakota, and most of Wyoming, while northern Montana has an increased chance of below-normal temperatures. Northern and western Montana also have the likelihood of above-normal precipitation, while Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, southern North Dakota, South Dakota, and eastern Wyoming have an increased chance for below-normal precipitation.  The 7 - day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is predicting little precipitation across the High Plains, except for western Montana and western Wyoming, which could receive up to 2” in the next week, and eastern Kansas, which may receive up to a half inch.