Weekly High Plains Drought Update - August 31, 2017

Warm, Dry Conditions Lead to Drought Intensification in Montana

The past week was warmer than normal across the western High Plains, with cooler conditions in the eastern part of the region. Other than eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska, the High Plains were mostly dry. While the percent area in drought (D1-D4) depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor changed little over the past week for the Northern Plains region as a whole, Montana experienced intensificaton of drought conditions. The percent area of Montana in Exceptional Drought (D4) doubled last week from 3% to 6%, and Severe Drought (D2) and Extreme Drought (D3) expanded farther westward into central and western Montana. Meanwhile, heavy rains in eastern South Dakota provided relief from drought, as Abnormally Dry Conditions (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1) were pulled back.

On August 24th, northeast Montana had some thunderstorms, which would normally be welcome during a drought. However, rainfall accumulations did not do enough to alleviate drought conditions, and dry lightning sparked wildfires and burned several thousand acres. As for agriculture, considerable greenup of pastures across South Dakota was reported by the South Dakota State Climatologist. There was a vast improvement in soybean conditions as well. Statewide, soybean conditions improved from 22% to 17% in poor to very poor condition during the past week. However, corn conditions deteriorated slightly across North Dakota, as 20% of the crop is now in poor to very poor condition, compared to 17% last week.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast does not look promising for the next 7 days. The remnants of Hurricane Harvey will miss the Plains and head toward the Midwest; meanwhile, precipitation accumulation across much of the High Plains is expected to remain below a quarter of an inch. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day precipitation outlook shows an increased chance for below-normal precipitation across most of the region. As for temperatures, the western U.S. is expected to be warmer than normal, while cooler than normal conditions are expected in the eastern U.S. The High Plains serves as the transition between these conditions, with above-normal temperatures predicted in the western High Plains and below-normal temperatures predicted for the eastern part of the region.