Weekly High Plains Drought Update - August 10 2017

Locally Heavy Rainfall Brings Drought Relief to Portions of the Northern Plains

A majority of the High Plains recorded temperatures 6°F below normal this past week. Scattered showers led to over 200% of normal precipitation in parts of the Dakotas, much of Colorado and southern Wyoming, and eastern Kansas. While parts of North Dakota received beneficial rainfall, it was not enough to improve the state’s drought conditions. However, pockets of South Dakota and Nebraska received enough rainfall to warrant a change in the USDM depiction. Parts of the Standing Rock and Cheyenne River reservations saw extreme drought (D3) improve to severe drought (D2) conditions this week, while other small areas in central South Dakota saw a reduction in area of D2 conditions. Beneficial rains in western Nebraska prompted the removal of moderate drought (D1) conditions in some areas, while north-central Nebraska improved from D2 to D1 conditions. Degradations occurred this week in central Kansas, where D1 conditions expanded southward.

This week, improved conditions of corn, soybeans, and spring wheat were reported by the USDA’s Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. South Dakota now reports% of their corn condition at poor to very poor, compared to 39% the previous week. Soybean conditions also improved, with less than a third of the crop in South Dakota rated poor to very poor. South Dakota also saw improvement of its pasture conditions, with a reduction of 4% in the poor to very poor categories. Spring wheat in North Dakota saw improvement with production, with a reduction of 4% in the poor to very poor categories. However, Montana saw an increase of 5% in the poor to very poor categories.  Pasture conditions also declined in Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming this week. 68% of Montana, 71% of South Dakota, and 21% of Wyoming pastures were in poor to very poor conditions. Montana was the only state in the High Plains region where topsoil moisture declined during the past week. Additionally, storage levels dropped in north-central Montana, prompting the early shutdown of the irrigation season in this region. Beaver Creekreported to have stopped flowing, which has not occurred since 1984. Fire risk is expected to stay high in the state until November.

According to the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, approximately 2 - 5” of rainfall is expected to occur in southern Kansas in the next 7 days. Most of Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota are predicted to receive an inch of rain or more, whereas Wyoming and Montana can expect anywhere from a tenth to half an inch. If this forecast pans out, it would provide much-needed relief to some drought-stricken areas across the High Plains. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook is forecasting an increased chance of above-normal precipitation in much of the High Plains, with greater chances for near-normal precipitation for western Colorado. Below-normal temperatures are expected for most of the High Plains, while near-normal temperatures are predicted for northern North Dakota westward through the eastern half of Montana.