Weekly High Plains Drought Update - August 3 2017

Northern Plains Drought Persists, Impacts Still Present

This week’s US Drought Monitor depicted little change since last week in the Northern Plains. Little expansion of drought was depicted, due to only a small amount of rain that fell over much of the High Plains region this past week. This rainfall halted major deterioration, and brought relief to parts of southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota including the Standing Rock reservation, in which a portion of the reservation improved from extreme drought (D3) to severe drought (D2).  The USDM also introduced moderate drought (D1) in southeastern South Dakota and pockets of western Montana. Scattered showers brought above-normal precipitation to western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and northwestern North Dakota, all receiving over 200% of normal precipitation this week. Otherwise, the rest of the High Plains was dry. Below-normal temperatures occurred in Kansas, Nebraska, and southern South Dakota, which were mostly 2 to 4°F cooler than normal. However, departures of greater than 4°F above normal were experienced in North Dakota, Montana, and northwestern South Dakota.

According to the USDA’s Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, crop conditions have slightly improved from last week. Corn condition in North Dakota is now rated at 25% poor to very poor, just a percent less than last week. South Dakota’s corn is at 39% poor to very poor, which was a slight improvement as well. The percentage of soybeans in poor to very poor condition in South Dakota decreased by 1% to 35%. Unfortunately, half of North and South Dakota’s oats, sorghum, and spring wheat are still in poor to very poor condition. The poor to very poor conditions of pastures remains in North Dakota (78%), South Dakota (71%), Montana (60%), and Nebraska (33%). Topsoil moisture has become more depleted in Montana and North Dakota, both seeing an increase of short to very short, 4% in Montana and 6% in North Dakota. Topsoil moisture improved 9% in Nebraska, 3% in South Dakota, and 1% in Wyoming.

According to the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, approximately 2 to 5” of rainfall is expected to occur in southeastern Kansas and central Colorado in the next 7 days. Much of Nebraska and South Dakota are expected to receive over an inch of rain, while elsewhere in the Northern Plains a quarter of an inch or more is likely. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook is forecasting an increased chance for above-normal precipitation in Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, and southern South Dakota. Below-normal precipitation is likely for Montana, North Dakota, and northern South Dakota. The entire High Plains region has an increased probability of below-normal temperatures in the next 6 to 10 days.