Weekly High Plains Drought Update - July 27 2017

Northern Plains Drought Intensifies; Exceptional Drought Expands in Montana 

This week’s US Drought Monitor map shows an increase in exceptional drought (D4) conditions in eastern Montana, and now covers 10% more of the state than last week. New pockets of extreme drought (D3) were introduced in central South Dakota, while welcomed rainfall caused a reduction of D3 in a portion of north-central South Dakota. The state of Nebraska also saw some degradation, as moderate drought (D1) expanded across western parts of the state, and severe drought (D2) spread southward from South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Much of the Northern Plains saw some rainfall this past week, but especially in eastern South Dakota, which received 2+” of rainfall in the past 7 days. Above-normal temperatures were experienced across most of the High Plains region, with departures of 2 to 4° F in the north and up to 8°F in central Kansas.

Crops in the High Plains have not been in the best conditions due to the lack of rainfall and hot weather. According to the USDA’s Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, almost a quarter of the corn crop in North Dakota and over half of the crop in South Dakota was in poor to very poor condition. Soybeans were also not faring well, as 25% of North Dakota’s crop and 44% of South Dakota’s crop were rated as poor to very poor. Over half the state of Montana and more than three-quarters of both North and South Dakota have poor to very poor pasture conditions, leading to the high number of cow-calf sales and increased herding between fields. The topsoil moisture in Montana and Nebraska decreased over the past week, with 92% of topsoil moisture in Montana and 71% of topsoil moisture in Nebraska having been rated short to very short. These two states have seen a 4 to 6% increase of short to very short conditions in the past 7 days. South Dakota’s topsoil moisture is at 67% short to very short, but experienced improvement due to the precipitation this past week.

If you’d like to learn more about how the current drought is affecting Montana, check out this compelling video from the Montana Television Network here. 

According to the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, monsoon conditions are expected to bring heavy precipitation to parts of Colorado, whereas much of the rest of the High Plains is forecasted to see less than a quarter inch of rainfall in the next 7 days. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14 day outlook is predicting that Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southern Nebraska have a chance of below-normal temperatures. Above-normal temperatures are favored for the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana. Drought relief looks unlikely in the next week, as the Climate Prediction Center has also predicted that Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and northern Wyoming have an increased chance of below-normal precipitation. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is favored for Colorado and southwestern Kansas.