Weekly High Plains Drought Update - July 20, 2017

Drought Further Intensifies in the Northern Plains, Exceptional Drought Introduced

It was another warm and dry week across much of the High Plains, especially in the drought-stricken regions of the Dakotas and eastern Montana. While a few areas in this region received some precipitation during the past week, it was not enough to improve drought conditions. The heat was oppressive, as much of the area in drought experienced temperatures of 4-10°F above normal. As a result, the July 18th U.S. Drought Monitor map indicated worsening conditions. A few pockets of Exceptional Drought (D4) were introduced to northeastern Montana and western North Dakota. D4 is the highest intensity category of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Severe Drought (D2) also expanded into south-central South Dakota, with areas of Moderate Drought (D1) now extending southward into northern Nebraska.

Several additional drought impacts were reported last week. According to the North Dakota State Climatologist, extensive damage to field crops has occurred, and there is little water available for livestock. In South Dakota, producers are very concerned about corn as it enters the tasseling stage, as this is a critical time for the crop to receive adequate moisture. In Montana, several Indian reservations were being impacted as well. The Fort Peck and Fort Belknap Tribes have declared disaster emergencies, and significant water shortages were reported on the Rocky Boy Reservation. Corn and soybeans were faring okay except in South Dakota, but spring wheat is in bad shape. The following are percentages of the crop in poor to very poor condition, according to the July 18th USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin: South Dakota (74%), Montana (61%), North Dakota (40%). Pasture conditions continued to suffer. Topsoil moisture further declined in the Dakotas this past week, as 85% of South Dakota's topsoil moisture and 65% of North Dakota's topsoil moisture were rated short to very short. It is worth noting that topsoil moisture declined rapidly during the past week in Wyoming, as 62% of topsoil moisture in the state is now rated short to very short.

Looking ahead, the 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast indicates over one inch of moisture could fall in the eastern Dakotas and northeast Nebraska, which could help conditions in these areas. However, the areas experiencing the worst conditions may only see one-quarter inch of rain or less, which will not provide much relief. The Climate Prediciton Center 6-10 day outlook indicates a high probability of the continuation of above-normal temperatures across the entire High Plains, with below-normal precipitation favored in the western and southern High Plains.