October 2014 Climate Summary

For a printable version of the climate summary which includes more figures, data tables, and state summaries, click here. 

Temperature Summary

For the first time in just over a year, the entire High Plains Region was warmer than normal. Generally, October average temperatures ranged from 2.0-4.0 degrees F (1.1-2.2 degrees C) above normal. However, some areas ranged from 4.0-6.0 degrees F (2.2-3.3 degrees C) above normal, with some isolated locations slightly higher. The end of the month was particularly warm with average temperatures between the 19th and 25th of 9.0-12.0 degrees F (5.0-6.7 degrees C) above normal. Many daily records were broken during this time period. One particularly warm day in Colorado and Wyoming was the 24th. Alamosa, Colorado Springs, Denver, and Pueblo in Colorado and Cheyenne and Lander in Wyoming all set new records that day. One example of these records was Cheyenne, Wyoming which had a high temperature of 77 degrees F (25.0 degrees C). This beat the old record for that day by 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) (period of record 1872-2014).

Many locations in Wyoming ranked in the top 10 warmest Octobers on record, including Cheyenne (9th), Lander (8th), Laramie (5th), and Rawlins (5th). Impressively, Lander’s average temperature of 51.0 degrees F (10.6 degrees C) was 5.4 degrees F (3.0 degrees C) above normal (period of record 1891-2014). Lander’s warmest October on record occurred back in 1963 with an average temperature of 53.6 degrees F (12.0 degrees C).

Precipitation Summary

October 2014 was fairly dry, with most of the High Plains Region receiving at most 1.00 inch (mm) of precipitation. This translated into a widespread area receiving less than 50 percent of normal precipitation including large areas of the Dakotas, much of Wyoming, and a swath stretching from northeastern Colorado into northern Kansas and southern and central Nebraska. Areas receiving over 150 percent of normal precipitation were isolated to eastern Nebraska, central and eastern Kansas, and southeastern Colorado. Much of that precipitation occurred during the first half of the month. Colorado Springs, Colorado was one of the few wet locations this month. With 2.96 inches (75 mm), Colorado Springs had its 3rd wettest October on record (period of record 1894-2014). All of this precipitation fell over a two day period, the 9th and 10th. 2.83 inches (72 mm) fell on the 9th, which smashed the old 1967 daily record of 0.59 inches (15 mm). Although just outside the Region, it is worth noting that Kansas City, Missouri had its 2nd wettest October on record with a whopping 9.29 inches (236 mm). This amount was 6.13 inches (156 mm) above normal, or 294 percent of normal (period of record 1888-2014). On the dry side of things, Sheridan, Wyoming had its 4th driest October on record with only 0.16 inches (4 mm). With records dating back to 1907, the driest occurred in 1965 with 0.02 inches (1 mm).

The dry conditions did allow producers to make significant harvest progress and aided in crop drydown.

Climate Outlook

Although ENSO-neutral conditions continued, El Niño may begin at some point in the next couple of months. The temperature outlook through January indicates a higher probability of above normal temperatures for much of the western and northern portions of the United States and includes northern portions of the High Plains Region - North Dakota, much of South Dakota, and the majority of Wyoming. No areas in the Region have a higher probability for below normal temperatures. Meanwhile, the precipitation outlook shows a higher probability for above normal precipitation in far southern Colorado, while the northwestern part of Wyoming has a higher probability of below normal precipitation. All other areas in the Region have equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures and precipitation. The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO).More information about these forecasts can be found here.

Drought Watch

There were only slight changes to drought conditions in the High Plains Region according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The total area in drought (D1-D4) dropped slightly from 12 percent to 11 percent. At the beginning of the month, only Colorado and Kansas had drought conditions, however by the end of the month moderate drought (D1) had developed in northeastern South Dakota where dry conditions have prevailed over the past few months. A new area of abnormally dry conditions (D0) also developed in northeastern South Dakota and southeastern North Dakota. Conditions in Kansas improved, mainly in the eastern part of the state. Statewide, drought conditions went from 46 percent to 38 percent over the past month. Meanwhile, the last remaining extreme drought (D3) area in Colorado was eliminated and now severe drought conditions (D2) remain. According to the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released October 16th, all drought conditions in the Region should improve or be removed over the next few months.