October 2011 Climate Summary

For a printable version of the climate summary which includes more figures, data tables, and state summaries, click here. 

Temperature Summary

The High Plains Region experienced a wide range of weather conditions this October including record warmth, record cold, severe storms, and snow. Overall, temperature departures generally ranged from near normal in the south up to 8.0 degrees F (4.4 degrees C) above normal in the north. Many locations across North Dakota ranked in the top 10 warmest Octobers on record. Fargo, North Dakota’s average temperature was 52.6 degrees F (11.4 degrees C) this month which was 7.3 degrees F (4.1 degrees C) above normal. That was warm enough to be ranked as the 6th warmest October on record (period of record 1881-2011). The warmest October on record, which was set in 1963, held firmly at 57.2 degrees F (14.0 degrees C). The hot, dry, and windy start to the month contributed to the warm average temperatures and also created dangerous fire weather conditions.  Temperatures reached the mid to upper 90s throughout the Region and new daily temperature records were set in the Dakotas. One impressive record occurred at Dunn Center 1E, North Dakota, which is located north of Dickinson. The high temperature on October 4 was 98.0 degrees F (36.7 degrees C) which smashed the old record of 87.0 degrees (30.6 degrees C) set in 1963 (period of record 1919-2011). On the other end of the spectrum, Laramie, Wyoming set a new daily low temperature record of -16.0 degrees F (-26.7 degrees C) on October 27 after receiving some fresh snow. The old record of 0.0 degrees F (-17.8 degrees C) was set in 1996 (period of record 1948-2011).

Precipitation Summary

Precipitation was highly variable this month across the High Plains Region. Little precipitation fell in the eastern part of the Region, along the eastern sides of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. Some locations in these areas were ranked in the top 10 driest Octobers on record. Although the dryness led to the development of abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions, the dry weather did help harvesting activities progress as many days were suitable for fieldwork. By the end of the month, the harvesting of most row crops was either completed or nearing completion. Extremely dry conditions were present early in the month and numerous fires were reported in Nebraska and South Dakota. These fires destroyed crops, combines, center pivots, and even homes. One fire in Stapleton, Nebraska, which is north of North Platte, burned over 25,000 acres and caused around $4 million in damages.

Meanwhile, other areas of the Region received over 200 percent of normal precipitation. These areas included central Nebraska, northwestern Kansas, pockets of Colorado, and southeastern and northwestern Wyoming. October 6-8 was an eventful time frame for many parts of the Region. Severe weather, including tornadoes, high winds, and hail were reported across southwestern Kansas on the 7th. Meanwhile, northwestern Kansas received high precipitation, most of which fell during the October 6-8 time frame as a slow moving system passed through the area. By the end of the month, a few locations had even surpassed 300 percent of normal precipitation. An extreme example was Hoxie, Kansas which received 6.95 inches (177 mm) of precipitation, most of which fell during the October 6-8 time period. Despite the monthly total for Hoxie being 5.81 inches (148 mm) above normal, or an impressive 610 percent above normal precipitation, this was only the 3rd wettest October on record (period of record 1897-2011). The wettest October on record occurred in 1946 with 7.55 inches (192 mm).  

Parts of Wyoming were also wetter than normal this month.  North central and southeastern Wyoming both had precipitation totals which were at least 200 percent of normal. Several locations ranked in the top 10 wettest Octobers on record and with 3.72 inches (94 mm) of precipitation, Sheridan, Wyoming had its wettest October on record (period of record 1907-2011). This monthly total was 2.31 inches (59 mm) above normal or 264 percent of normal precipitation. 1.79 inches (45 mm) fell in one day, October 7, and a new daily precipitation record was set as well. The old record occurred in 1993 with only 0.59 inches (15 mm).

In addition to heavy precipitation and severe storms, some of the first snow of the season affected parts of the Region. An early snow storm caused problems in Colorado. Leaves were still on trees as heavy, wet snow fell on October 26. As a result, trees fell causing many power outages. Snow totals were highly variable across north central Colorado, but with 11.5 inches (29 cm) of snow, Boulder, Colorado set a new daily snow record for October 26 (period of record 1893-2011). This crushed the old daily record of 4.1 inches (10 cm) set in 2006.

Climate Outlook

La Niña conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen and continue through winter.  The temperature outlook indicates a higher probability of above normal temperatures for most of Colorado, southwest Kansas, a small portion of southwest Nebraska, and extreme southern Wyoming.  A higher probability for below normal temperature exists for much of North Dakota.  Equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures are predicted elsewhere in the Region.  The precipitation outlook indicates a higher probability of above normal precipitation across the Dakotas, Wyoming, northern Nebraska, and northwest Colorado.  Meanwhile, southern Colorado and much of Kansas have a higher probability of below normal precipitation.  Equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation are predicted elsewhere in the Region.  The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). More information about these forecasts can be found here.

Drought Watch

The U.S. Drought Monitor had improvements and degradations this month. Areas of improvement include the erasure of an area of abnormally dry conditions (D0) in the panhandle of Nebraska and western Wyoming, an area of D0 in central Nebraska, and a contraction of drought conditions in northern Kansas. While drought conditions in South Dakota remained about the same, both North Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas had developed D0 conditions on their eastern border by the end of the month. An area of D0 also developed in western North Dakota and far northwestern South Dakota. Meanwhile, the ongoing drought in eastern Colorado and western Kansas improved only slightly and remained largely unchanged. According to the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook drought conditions in South Dakota were expected to improve, while drought conditions in other areas were expected to persist.