July 2023 Climate Summary

July 2023 Climate Summary

Storm over Lincoln, Nebraska, Photo Courtesy of Gannon Rush

Regional Breakdown

 July was a mixed bag of weather for the High Plains. Precipitation was greatly needed for some, while others received next to nothing. Cooler temperatures dominated much of the region, despite a heatwave late in the month.

Wheat harvest in Kansas began at the beginning of June, with most of it harvested by the fourth of July. Around this time, however, storms pushed through the state nearly every other day which caused numerous delays. Weeds became a significant issue, and the quality of the wheat began to decline. Some places, such as Morton County, didn’t have the first loads of wheat to the Co-op until early July. The same county also reported 70 to 75 percent of planted acres and were zeroed out by crop insurance due to the ongoing multi-year drought. The average yield for the state is expected to be historically low, with an average of 32 bushels an acre.

Corn and soybeans are in decent shape throughout the region, with a large portion of crops in fair to good shape. Pasture and range conditions are improving, with only small numbers in very poor shape. Conditions could see further improvement in August, with the majority of agricultural production areas having a chance of above-normal precipitation.

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (top), day-by-day percent of normal precipitation (middle), percent of normal precipitation (bottom) for July 2023 in the High Plains region. Maps produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Precipitation and Water Resources

Aside from scattered pockets of above-normal precipitation, the region was fairly dry this month. Western Colorado and the majority of North Dakota were well below normal, with places of near-record dryness.

While eastern Colorado has received normal to above normal precipitation these past few months, the western part of the state has not been so lucky. Grand Junction tied with 1898 for the driest on record, while Alamosa was the driest. Next to zero precipitation occurred in both places this month and combined with the recent heat, drought conditions have begun to be reintroduced in the southwestern part of the state.

Among those who missed the rain this month include McCook, Nebraska, and the surrounding area. Just a few months ago, they recorded their wettest month ever by a large margin and greatly improved the ongoing drought. This month was a setback, as only 0.50 inches (12.7 mm)  precipitation occurred, and it was ranked 5th driest. At the end of June, they ranked 10th wettest for January through June period. Currently, they rank 25th after a meager July precipitation.

For the portions of the region that did receive precipitation, the majority of it was related to severe weather. Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska recorded their highest number of severe thunderstorm warnings issued (period of record 2002 to present). Over 350 were issued in each state, with Colorado also recording their most tornado warnings as well. On the 20th, a whopping 115 mph (185 km/h) gust was recorded outside of Wallace, Kansas. A building was completely destroyed by the winds, while other locations were pummeled by the combination of the wind and up to 2.5 inch (6.35 cm) hail.

Streamflow is in good shape for the region, except for Kansas and parts of Nebraska. Conditions are below to much below normal along the Kansas-Nebraska border and eastern Kansas. Some stations were at record lows at the end of July.  

Above: Total precipitation in inches (top) and departure from normal precipitation in inches (bottom) for July 2023. These maps are produced by HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Temperatures

Temperatures were cooler for many places, however, an oppressive heatwave occurred towards the end of the month with temperatures well above 100 degrees F (37.8 degrees C).

Western Colorado experienced well above-normal temperatures throughout the month, with the heatwave only adding fuel to the fire. Alamosa tied with 2003 for the 2nd warmest and narrowly missed the record, with an average temperature of 68.2 degrees F (20.1 degrees C). Grand Junction also ranked 2nd warmest, with an average temperature of 83.3 degrees F (28.5 degrees C). The average high temperature for Grand Junction was 99.3 degrees F (37.4 degrees C) for July, which is the 2nd warmest month on record.

The heatwave that impacted the region late in the month not only brought scorching temperatures but also set some notable records. On the 17th, Grand Junction tied with July 9th, 2021 for the highest all-time temperature of 107 degrees F (41.7 degrees C). Lawrence, Kansas recorded its highest July low temperature 84 degrees F (28.9 degrees C) on the 27th. It was also the 4th highest low temperature of all time.

Drought Conditions

Drought conditions improved this month, particularly in Kansas and Nebraska. However, North Dakota and southwestern Colorado were extremely dry, resulting in drought conditions rapidly intensifying. Overall, abnormally dry to exceptional drought (D0-D4) was reduced by a little over 2 percent in the region.

The drought that has plagued Kansas and Nebraska has seen steady improvement this summer. Above-normal precipitation across eastern Nebraska reduced D4 in the state by nearly 11 percent this month. On the opposite end of the spectrum, southwestern Colorado was near bone dry and observed a 25 percent increase in D0-D4. North Dakota also experienced a rapid increase in moderate to exceptional drought (D1-D4). Elsewhere in the region, other localized improvements and degradations were observed.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation
Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor
information, please see: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, an El Niño Advisory has been issued and conditions are likely to increase over the coming months. For more information, visit  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood outlook indicates increased chances of Minor Flooding in central South Dakota and western Nebraska. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be limited across the region through November.

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal temperatures across the United States, except for the central states. Increased chances of above-normal temperatures are present in Colorado, Wyoming, and western Kansas. Slight chances of below normal temperatures are present in eastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, and southeastern South Dakota.

Precipitation

The outlook for the next three months indicates below-normal precipitation in parts of the southwestern and northwestern United States, while above-normal precipitation is favored for the east-central part of the country.  

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on July 31st indicates drought conditions will likely improve across the region, while development is likely in western Colorado.

Station Summaries: By the Number

Download PDF Below

Climate Summary (unl.edu)

June 2023 Climate Summary

June 2023 Climate Summary

View of Boulder, Colorado, Photo Courtesy of Gannon Rush

Regional Breakdown

The month of June was both good and bad for the High Plains. Record precipitation greatly improved drought conditions for some, while others continued to remain dry. Drought conditions continued to intensify in the eastern portions of the region, leading to significant impacts.

The dryness plaguing the central and eastern parts of the region has created lasting impacts. The lack of recharge this past winter has led to several cities implementing water restrictions in an effort to conserve the precious resource. The town of Waverly was forced to designate emergency restrictions due to low levels, while the outskirts of Lincoln implemented mandatory restrictions of 50 percent. Other locations like Hays, Kansas reintroduced summertime restrictions that include a ban on outdoor water use from noon to 7:00 PM.

Severe weather was active throughout the region, with hail and winds being the primary threats this month. A hailstorm on the 21st interrupted a concert at Red Rocks Amphitheatre outside of Denver, Colorado. Nearly 100 people were injured, with seven taken to the hospital after concert goers failed to heed the severe thunderstorm warnings.

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (top), day-by-day percent of normal precipitation (middle), percent of normal precipitation (bottom) for June 2023 in the High Plains region. Maps produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Precipitation and Water Resources

The trend of above-normal precipitation in the west and below-normal to the east continued into June. The Front Range and Rocky Mountains observed record to near-record amounts, while eastern Kansas was below 25 percent of their normal. 

Drought conditions were erased from the state of Colorado after this month’s record precipitation, with only minimal dryness left. Denver surpassed their previous record by over an inch (2.54 cm), with 6.10 inches (15.49 cm) of precipitation. Nearby Akron set their new record after 7.48 inches (19 cm) fell there. Colorado Springs received 9.62 inches (24.44 cm) to break the previous record, which is nearly 60 percent of its annual precipitation. 

Another benefactor from the recent precipitation was Wyoming. Numerous locations recorded one of their wettest months on record, while others like Laramie and Sheridan nearly broke theirs. Similar to Colorado, drought conditions greatly improved across the state. 

The severe weather this month was both ends of the extreme. The Dakotas observed record-low issuances of tornado warnings for June (period of record 2003-2023), with only three total issued for both states. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Colorado and Wyoming had near-record numbers of tornado warnings. Colorado had a particularly nasty month, with 71 tornado warnings issued and a whopping 152 reports of hail. 

Snowpack melted in June, with the mainstem storage approaching the average. Releases from Gavins Point dam have been adjusted to near normal. Streamflow is average to above normal across the region except for eastern Kansas and Nebraska.

Above: Total precipitation in inches (top) and departure from normal precipitation in inches (bottom) for June 2023. These maps are produced by HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Temperatures

Record to near-record warmth continued in the northern part of the region this month. Parts of North Dakota were 6 degrees F (3.3 degrees C) above normal, while the cooler and wetter western portions were up to 4 degrees F (2.2 degrees C) below normal.

In North Dakota, Fargo and Grand Forks recorded their warmest June of 74.8 degrees F (23.8 degrees C) and 71.6 degrees F (22 degrees C). Both locations recorded their warmest May-June, after having their second warmest May the previous month. This contrasts sharply with early spring, when well below temperatures dominated North Dakota. Elsewhere in the Dakotas, Aberdeen and Sisseton ranked in the Top 5 warmest.

While temperatures have not been excessively hot this year in eastern Nebraska, they have been steadily very warm. At the end of June, Lincoln had recorded 46 days at or above 85 degrees F (29.4 degrees C) for the year. This is the most on record for the first six months of a year, with two more days than 1934 which was the warmest year on record.

Drought Conditions

Drought conditions further improved in June, particularly in Kansas. Eastern Nebraska continued to remain dry, with exceptional drought (D4) observed over much of the area. Overall, abnormally dry to exceptional drought (D0-D4) was reduced by nearly seven percent in the High Plains. 

The steady stream of precipitation in Kansas brought relief this month. D4 was reduced by nine percent, with only small pockets remaining in the state.  Nebraska experienced improvements in the west and degradation in the east. Drought is firmly entrenched across the eastern part of the state, after yet another dry month. Elsewhere in the region, other localized improvements and degradations were observed.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation
Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor
information, please see: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, an El Niño Advisory has been issued and conditions are likely to increase over the coming months. For more information, visit  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood outlook indicates increased chances of Minor Flooding in central South Dakota and western Nebraska. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be limited across the region through October.

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal temperatures across the majority of the United States. Increased chances of above-normal temperatures are present in Colorado, Kansas, and Wyoming.

Precipitation

The outlook for the next three months indicates below-normal precipitation across the southwestern and northwestern United States, while above-normal precipitation is favored for the central part of the country. Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming have increased chances of above normal precipitation.  

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on June 30th indicates drought conditions will likely improve across the region.

Station Summaries: By the Number

Download PDF Below

Climate Summary (unl.edu)

May 2023 Climate Summary

May 2023 Climate Summary

Sunset at Lake McConaughy outside of Ogallala, Nebraska, Photo Courtesy of Gannon Rush

Regional Breakdown

The phrase, “when it rains, it pours” would describe the month of May for northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Parts of the area had gone nearly 290 days without over 0.5 inches (12.7 mm) of precipitation in a day to nearly 7.5 inches (19.05 cm) in a single day. Other places in the region like eastern Nebraska, have not been as fortunate, with near-record dryness this month and the entire spring.

The town of Culbertson in southwestern Nebraska recorded its driest year on record in 2022, with a meager 10.87 inches of precipitation (27.61 cm). In the month of May, they recorded nearly the same amount as the whole year of 2022, with 10.65 inches of precipitation (27.05 cm). While the complete reversal has greatly improved drought conditions, long-term drought impacts still plague the area. These rains are also too late to improve winter wheat yields for the year, with yields projected to be among the worst in the past 60 years.

This spring was incredibly dry across eastern Nebraska, with corn struggling to emerge. Widespread irrigation is taking place rather early in the season, due to insufficient precipitation. This dryness is not short-term, with multiple locations recording their driest past 12 months. 

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (top), day-by-day percent of normal precipitation (middle), percent of normal precipitation (bottom) for May 2023 in the High Plains region. Maps produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Precipitation and Water Resources

May precipitation was above normal for eastern Colorado, western Kansas and Nebraska, and parts of the Dakotas. The eastern part of the region was bone dry, with places 25 percent below normal.

Eastern Nebraska was dry not only this past month but the entire Spring. For the month of May, Omaha was the driest on record with only 0.17 inches (4.06 mm) of precipitation. This has broken the previous low of 0.55 inches (13.97 mm) set in 1989 and 1925 by a large margin. Lincoln was 0.02 inches (0.51 mm) from ranking driest, with only 0.51 inches this past month. Looking further back, Norfolk observed their driest spring with 2.41 inches (6.12 cm) of precipitation. Hastings and Lincoln were not far behind, ranking 3rd. The dryness plaguing the area also stretches much further back, with Hastings, Lincoln, and Norfolk all having their driest past 12 months.

A continuous onslaught of storms impacted the Front Range into the western parts of Kansas and Nebraska. McCook, Nebraska observed not only their wettest May, but also their wettest month on record with 10.94 inches (27.79 cm). Nearby CoCoRaHS observers reported amounts up to 14 inches (35.56 cm), much more than they received in 2022. Nearby North Platte ranked 3rd wettest, while Chadron ranked 5th. In Colorado, Denver ranked 4th, and Colorado Springs ranked 6th wettest.

Severe weather was active at the beginning of the month before calming down. Multiple days featured several tornadoes and 4+ inch (10.16 cm) hail, with the peak on the 12th of the month in Nebraska. 19 tornadoes were reported, with three being rated EF-2, with one having an estimated width of a mile (1.61 km). Numerous hailstone events were also reported that day. The largest hailstone with a size around 4.5 inches (11.43 cm) was reported near the town of Pawnee.

According to the United States Army Corps of Engineers, snowpack melt is nearing its conclusion.  Streamflow is well below-normal across much of the eastern Plains, while conditions improved in the western portions of Kansas and Nebraska.  

Above: Total precipitation in inches (top) and departure from normal precipitation in inches (bottom) for May 2023. These maps are produced by HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Temperatures

Temperatures were above-to-well above-normal for the region, with departures over 8 degrees F (4.4 degrees C) above-normal in parts of the Dakotas. Many locations ranked in the top 5 warmest after the unseasonably warm temperatures.

The Dakotas were unusually warm, with many locations observing near-record warmth this month. In North Dakota, Grand Forks and Fargo were the 2nd warmest on record while Williston and Dickinson both tied for 6th. Grand Forks surpassed 80 degrees F (26.7 degrees C) for the first time in 241 days on May 13th, marking the end of the cooler temperatures in the state. South Dakota had Sisseton, Mobridge, and Sioux Falls all rank in the top 5 warmest.

Parts of Wyoming and western Nebraska were also warmer this month, with Laramie and Cheyenne in the top 5 warmest. Portions of Yellowstone National Park reached nearly 90 degrees F (32.2 degrees C), which is their record high temperature for May. Nearby Nebraska had Chadron and Scottsbluff in the top 10 warmest this past month.

Drought Conditions

The region, for the most part, experienced improvements up to 3 classes this month thanks to constant precipitation. The areas that were dry observed up to a 2-class degradation such as eastern Nebraska and Kansas. Overall, moderate to exceptional drought (D1-D4) was reduced by 12 percent for the High Plains.

Southwestern Nebraska experienced the most improvement this month, with some areas going from extreme drought (D3) to abnormally dry (D0). The eastern part of the state observed a large increase to both D3 and D4, in response to the dryness since the beginning of the year. Elsewhere in the region, other localized improvements and degradations were observed.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation
Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor
information, please see: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions have ended and transitioned to ENSO-neutral. An El Niño Watch was issued on May 11th, with conditions likely to form early this summer. For more information, visit  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood outlook indicates increased chances of Major Flooding in central South Dakota. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be limited across the region through September.

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal temperatures across much of the United States. Increased chances of above-normal temperatures are present in Colorado, Kansas, and Wyoming.

Precipitation

The outlook for the next three months indicates below-normal precipitation across the southwestern and northwestern United States, while above-normal precipitation is favored for the central part of the country. Most of the High Plains region has chances of above-normal precipitation.  

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on June 15th indicates drought conditions will likely improve.

Station Summaries: By the Number

Download PDF Below

Climate Summary (unl.edu)

CliGrow Crop Maturity App

CliGrow is a new agroclimate tool developed by the High Plains Regional Climate Center. It allows users to estimate crop maturity using growing degree days for any location in the lower 48 states. Estimates are available for ten different crops, with more arriving at a later date. The best part is that you can save the link to the graph and revisit your field’s up-to-date estimate at any time.

We have published a YouTube video about CliGrow here, or you can keep reading to learn more about using CliGrow.

Getting started with CliGrow is easy! First, navigate to the webpage. You will first find the location selection window. From here, you can pick anywhere in the lower 48 states. For this example, we have clicked on a location in rural North Carolina.

After clicking ‘Select Location’, you will see the main interface for CliGrow. Select the planting date for your field, then the crop type. For the moment, we are going to skip talking about the Crop Maturity Settings. Specify the freezing temperature you are most concerned with, then click “Start Analysis”. The plot may take a minute to load depending on your internet connection.

After the graph is done loading, you will see something like the screenshot above. In this case, we are showing the GDD accumulation for corn at a location in rural North Carolina. The graph is displaying a lot of useful information, so lets take a closer look.

The blue bars are showing the frequency of first or last freezes based on the temperature you selected. In this case, we can see that the latest a 28 degree freeze has ever occurred was in April of 2016. Similarly, in October of 2015 this location experienced its earliest ever freeze.

The green line is showing the accumulation of Growing Degree Days starting on the planting date, and the pink line is showing the average accumulation based on data from 1991-2020. In this example, we can see that this field is estimated to be growing at a near average rate so far this year.

In the example graph, you can see two colored vertical bars. If you did not select corn, you probably see only one bar. If you left the Crop Maturity Settings blank, you won’t see any. Each vertical bar represents the range of dates when maturity has occurred, based on the Growing Degree Value provided in the Crop Maturity Settings. In the example image, the green bar is showing that the silk layer has been reached earliest on June 20, 1991, and latest on July 7, 1997. If the green line showing the current year’s accumulation has reached the maturity Growing Degree Day value, a solid vertical bar will appear at that point, representing the estimated maturity point for the planting year.

The Crop Maturity Settings allow you to specify when you think your field will mature. Most crops in CliGrow calculate a single estimated maturity date, but corn has two. Corn is also the only crop which can estimate the GDD maturity point based on a provided Days to Maturity value, though those estimates are based on work done in the central United States.

We recommend using the “Comparison Year” feature to determine a good Growing Degree Day maturity value based on the last time a crop was grown in the field. This allows you to estimate any number of maturity milestones based on your operation’s needs.

Clicking the three horizontal lines in the upper right corner of the graph allows you to save the graph image, and the Table tab shows the data being graphed.

The “Bookmark this graph” button provides a link to this graph. You can save the link in any way you like, and next time you open it, you will see an updated version of the graph.

The High Plains Regional Climate Center is excited to hear how you are using CliGrow, and welcomes any feedback you have regarding the web application. Contact Us with any questions, feedback, or suggestions you may have.

Our development team is planning on adding several new features ahead of the next growing season:

April 2023 Climate Summary

April 2023 Climate Summary

Cattle in a struggling Western Kansas Pasture, Photo Courtesy of Gannon Rush

Regional Breakdown

The northern parts of the High Plains continued to deal with the brutal winter, while the southern portions were dry once again. Both parts of the region are dealing with issues related to their ends of the extremes.

Snow continued to pile up in the Dakotas and Wyoming, with numerous impacts. Hunting permits for antelope and deer were slashed in Wyoming this fall as a result of the winter.  The Wyoming Game and Fish Department observed the excessive snowfall reduced both populations and has cut the permit numbers in an effort to help manage the populace. In North Dakota, a large number of dead deer were reported around the state, with over 100 reported in the Jamestown area alone. The rapid snowmelt in the middle of the month further exacerbated the issues, with flooding along the Red River and the Big Sioux. While in South Dakota, the heavy snow caused homes to explode due to the excessive weight.

In the southern Plains, drought-related issues continued to plague the population. Several significant wildfires broke out in Nebraska due to the dry conditions. The state has implemented a burn ban to help reduce the number of fires. Kansas agricultural producers are preparing for another year of drought, with farmers scrambling to find food sources for their already culled herds.

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (top), day-by-day percent of normal precipitation (middle), percent of normal precipitation (bottom) for April 2023 in the High Plains region. Maps produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Precipitation and Water Resources

April precipitation was below-normal for much of the region, with Nebraska very dry. The majority of the state was below 25 percent of their normal precipitation, leading to multiple locations ranking in the top 10 driest. Southwestern Kansas finally received some meaningful precipitation, however, not nearly enough to help improve the dire drought situation.

North Platte, Nebraska was arguably the driest location in the region, with only 0.04 inches (1.02 mm) of precipitation. This tied with 1928 for the driest April on record. Nearby Grand Island only observed 0.15 inches (3.81 mm), ranking 3rd driest. Other locations in the state ranking in the top 10 driest include Chadron, Lincoln, and Norfolk.

The significant snowfall that has impacted the Dakotas and Wyoming continued into April. Parts of Wyoming saw over 30 inches (76.2 cm) of snow, leading to numerous records. The small town of Atlantic City observed a whopping 48.8 inches (123.95 cm), the most in the state. The Dakotas received over 20 inches (50.8 cm) in some places. With such high totals continuing into April, many locations are likely to have recorded their snowiest year on record.

According to the United States Army Corps of Engineers, runoff for this calendar year is projected to be slightly above-normal despite the drought conditions.  Streamflow is well below-normal across much of the southern Plains, while rapid snowmelt has led streams to be well above-normal in the Dakotas.

Above: Total precipitation in inches (top) and departure from normal precipitation in inches (bottom) for April 2023. These maps are produced by HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Temperatures

Winter does not seem to want to end, with cooler temperatures dominating the northern and western parts of the region. Average temperatures were still below freezing across North Dakota and Wyoming, with some locations recording their coldest April on record.

Temperatures have been cooler for western Wyoming since the beginning of the year, with some locations 10 degrees F (5.6 degrees C) below normal through the end of April. Multiple locations including Tower Falls and Pavillion recorded their coldest month on record. Old Faithful in Yellowstone National Park observed a chilly average temperature of 25.9 degrees F (-3.4 degrees C) this month.

Just like Wyoming, North Dakota continued to be cooler into April. Despite having temperatures over 10 degrees F (5.6 degrees C) below normal, only three locations in the state ranked as the coldest April on record. Most notably, the town of Mayville has records dating to 1895 and observed an average temperature of 29.8 degrees F (-1.2 degrees C) to rank coldest on record. Both Moffit and Carrington also recorded their coldest month.

A heatwave impacted the lower part of the region in the middle of April, leading to temperatures skyrocketing well above 90 degrees F (32.2 degrees C). Atwood, Kansas was the warmest, with a high of 97 degrees F (36.1 degrees C) on the 13th. Hundreds of daily temperature records were broken from the 11th to the 13th as a result of this early heatwave.

Drought Conditions

For the second month in a row, drought conditions improved in the Dakotas while degrading in the southern plains. Central Kansas and the front range of Colorado experienced up to a three-class degradation in April alone. Overall, there was a 6 percent decrease in D0 to D4 (abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions).

Rapid snowmelt after well-above-normal temperatures caused North Dakota to observe a 40 percent decrease in D0 to D4. Soil moisture greatly improved, while some minor flooding is taking place in the state. While some beneficial precipitation occurred in southwestern Kansas late in the month, the majority of the state has experienced a poor spring for precipitation. The central part of the state observed a multi-class degradation, with a 10 percent increase in D4. Elsewhere in the region, other localized improvements and degradation were observed.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation
Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor
information, please see: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions have ended and transitioned to ENSO-neutral. The final La Niña advisory was
issued on March 9th. For more information, visit  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood outlook indicates increased chances of Major Flooding in central South Dakota. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be limited across the region through August.

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal temperatures across the southern and eastern United States. Increased chances of above-normal temperatures are present in Colorado and Kansas.

Precipitation

The outlook for the next three months indicates below-normal precipitation across the southwestern and northwestern United States, while above-normal precipitation is favored for the Southeast. The High Plains region has equal chances of precipitation.  

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on April 30th indicates improvements to drought conditions in the western portions of the region. Drought conditions will likely be introduced across eastern Kansas.

Station Summaries: By the Number

Download PDF Below

Climate Summary (unl.edu)

March 2023 Climate Summary

March 2023 Climate Summary

Thunderstorm over Lincoln, Nebraska, Photo Courtesy of Gannon Rush

Regional Breakdown

While snow continued to impact the northern states in March, precipitation was notably absent for much of the High Plains. Cooler temperatures helped with drought conditions; however, many places desperately need moisture this spring.


As the significant drought affecting Kansas enters the second year, a number of impacts are becoming apparent. Winter wheat is in incredibly poor shape, with some places not having meaningful precipitation in nearly 200 days. Fields are already being evaluated by insurance adjusters and being adjusted out, despite no wheat emerging. Farmers will be forced to find ways to hold soil in place in the coming months, as blowing dust has been an issue over the past year. The groundwater has been depleted, with water levels dropping nearly three feet near Garden City. A very unusual impact comes from the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks. Game Wardens within the state are seeing increased numbers of coyotes in towns this year due to the extreme drought conditions. The dry conditions have caused them to become desperate for sources of food and water.


After a quiet winter for wildfires, conditions rapidly became conducive for fires late in the month. Two separate fires broke out in Colorado on the 30th, with the town of Simla being evacuated after the flames poised a threat to the public.

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (top), day-by-day percent of normal precipitation (middle), percent of normal precipitation (bottom) for March 2023 in the High Plains region. Maps produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Precipitation and Water Resources

Precipitation was once again spotty this month. Several winter storms impacted the Dakotas, however, much of Kansas and Nebraska were bone dry.


Southwestern Kansas has been on the short end of the stick when it comes to precipitation for the past year, and March was no exception. Many places received less than 0.10 inches (2.54 mm) of precipitation, including Hays, Garden City, and Great Bend. Since the start of 2023, numerous locations have received less than 0.50 inches (12.7 mm) of precipitation. After record to near-record dryness last year, the situation continues to become dire and dire each month.


The onslaught of snowstorms in the Dakotas carried over into March. Blizzards continued to ravage both states, with record to near-record snowfall this month. Sisseton, South Dakota measured 31.3 inches (79.5 cm) of snow which set the record for March. This large amount of snow also propelled them to observe their snowiest January to March, with 48.5 inches (123.2 cm) of snow. Pierre ranked second after 19.1 inches (48.5 cm) of snow, but well short of the record at 31.8 inches (80.8 cm) set in 1975. Ranking third snowiest includes Aberdeen and Fargo, North Dakota.


As winter has ended and spring begins, snowpack is in great shape. At the end of March, the majority of the Dakotas and Wyoming have snow on the ground. Mountain snowpack is above normal for most basins, which should greatly benefit the water supply. Streamflow is well below normal across southern Nebraska and most of Kansas at the beginning of April.

Above: Total precipitation in inches (top) and departure from normal precipitation in inches (bottom) for March 2023. These maps are produced by HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Temperatures

March was chilly, particularly in parts of the Dakotas, Colorado, and Wyoming. Departures were up to 20 degrees F (11.1 degrees C) below normal in those states, with many locations ranking in the top 10 coldest. Temperatures were slightly below-normal for the rest of the region.


North Dakota was brutally cold, with the highest average temperature in the state being 20.6 degrees F (-6.3 degrees C) in the southwestern part of the state. The town of Mayville was the coldest place in the state, with an average temperature of 9.3 degrees F (-12.6 degrees C), which was also the coldest March on record for that station. Nearby Grand Forks observed their 3rd coldest March, with an average temperature of 12.6 degrees F (-10.8 degrees C). Other notable locations such as Bismarck, Dickinson, and Williston also ranked in the top 10.


Portions of Wyoming have been exceptionally cold in 2023. Casper and Rawlins recorded their 4th coldest January to March, while Lander was the coldest on record. The average temperature in the past three months was a meager 16.4 degrees F (-8.7 degrees C).

Drought Conditions

Drought conditions improved this month, primarily in North Dakota. Conditions did degrade in the southern portions of the region after minimal precipitation occurred. Overall, there was a 3 percent decrease in D0 to D4 (abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions).


After a bitterly cold and wet month, North Dakota experienced a 30 percent reduction in D1- D4 (moderate to exceptional). Despite the reduction in drought conditions, there was a minimal reduction in abnormally dry conditions with 95 percent of the state still observing D0-D4. While drought still remains entrenched in Nebraska, D3 to D4 (extreme to exceptional) was reduced by eight percent. Elsewhere in the region, other improvements and degradation were observed. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook for March, drought conditions will improve in Wyoming, South Dakota, and parts of Nebraska and North Dakota.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation
Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor
information, please see: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions have ended and transitioned to ENSO-neutral. The final La Niña advisory was
issued on March 9th. For more information, visit  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood outlook indicates high chances of Major Flooding in central South Dakota and western North Dakota. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be limited across the region through July.

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal temperatures across the southern and eastern United States. Increased chances of below-normal temperatures are present in North Dakota and northern South Dakota, while above-normal temperatures are favored in Kansas and southeastern Colorado.

Precipitation

The outlook for the next three months indicates below-normal precipitation across the southwestern and northwestern United States, while above-normal precipitation is favored for the Midwest. Southern Colorado and southwestern Kansas slightly lean towards below-normal precipitation, while the rest of the region has equal chances.

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on March 31st indicates that improvements to drought conditions will continue across the majority of the region.

Station Summaries: By the Number

Download PDF Below

Climate Summary (unl.edu)

Missouri River Basin Winter Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlooks

Regional Significant Events for December 2022 – February 2023

Highlights for the Basin

A historic Arctic air outbreak in late December led to hundreds of daily and thirty all-time record cold temperatures. Strong and sustained winds were present, leading to dangerous and life-threatening wind chills. Tragically, at least 11 people are known to have perished from the cold temperatures and icy roads.


A series of storms traversed portions of the Missouri Basin States, leading to new records of snowiest winters in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming.


The Missouri River Basin recorded its 2nd wettest winter, a stark contrast to the 10th driest of the previous year. Drought conditions improved in some areas as a result.

Regional Climate Overview for December 2022 – February 2023

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Temperatures were below normal for much of the region. Western Wyoming saw departures of 10 degrees below normal. December was unusually cold in Montana and North Dakota. Parts of western Colorado and Wyoming observed their coldest February on record.


Precipitation was well above-normal in the central portions of the basin, with record to near-record wetness. December and January brought multiple winter storms, leading to numerous snowfall and precipitation records broken in Nebraska and Wyoming. Both North and South Dakota recorded their wettest December on record. Southwestern Kansas continued to remain very dry, with well-below-normal precipitation observed.

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F) (top)
and Percent of Normal Precipitation (bottom) for Winter 22-23

Changes in Drought Conditions

Improvements to drought conditions occurred across much of the basin in response to the above-normal precipitation, with the region observing a nearly 15 percent decrease in drought. According to the Drought Monitor, D4 was reduced by 11 percent in Nebraska this winter. The map shows the areas of increasing (yellow) and decreasing (green) categories of drought.

December 6, 2022 – February 28, 2023

Regional Impacts for December 2022 – February 2023

Agriculture

The wetness this winter has been beneficial to soil moisture, however, conditions are still in poor shape and still need improvement in southwestern Kansas. Luckily, much of soils are not frozen completely allowing infiltration of melting snow and rain. There were reports of livestock loss due to the heavy snows and wildly fluctuating temperatures.

Snowdrifts inside the Rosebud Reservation in South Dakota, credit Bert Shields

Transportation

Repeated snowstorms in the central basin greatly hampered conditions. Numerous large wrecks were reported due to slick conditions. Thousands were stranded along roads and in their homes as a result of the December storms and cold. Closed roads and widespread loss of power were also noted in many areas. The Oglala and Rosebud Sioux Tribes were greatly impacted.

Road clearing outside of Mission, South Dakota, credit Bert Shields

Water Resources

Several ice jams formed in the Missouri River due to the rapid onset of cold temperatures. In late December, a significant blockage occurred, leading to record low river levels near Omaha. The reduced flows in the river impacted a nearby power plant, forcing it to be temporarily shut down.

Ice jam upstream of Omaha, Nebraska, credit Ryan J Larsen

Regional Outlook for April – June 2023

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the outlook for the upcoming season indicates increased chances of above-normal temperatures across Kansas and southeastern Colorado, while below-normal temperatures are favored in the Dakotas. Increased chances of below-normal precipitation are present in southern Colorado and drought-stricken southwestern Kansas. The rest of the Basin has equal chances of above, below, and near-normal precipitation.


La Nina influences have ended, and conditions will shift towards Neutral this spring. Based on the outlooks, drought conditions will improve across much of the basin. Areas favored for below-normal precipitation this spring will likely have persisting drought conditions.

Temperature

EC: Equal chances of above, near, or below normal
A: Above normal, B: Below normal

Precipitation

EC: Equal chances of above, near, or below normal
A: Above normal, B: Below normal

MO River Basin Partners

High Plains Regional Climate Center
www.hprcc.unl.edu
National Integrated Drought Information System
https://www.drought.gov/
NOAA NCEI
www.ncdc.noaa.gov
NOAA NWS – Central Region
www.weather.gov/crh
NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NOAA NWS Missouri Basin River Forecast Center
www.weather.gov/mbrfc
American Association of State Climatologists
https://www.stateclimate.org/
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
https://www.usbr.gov/
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
www.nrcs.usda.gov
USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub
www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov
Bureau of Indian Affairs – Great Plains Region
www.bia.gov/regional-offices/great-plains

National Drought Mitigation Center
http://drought.unl.edu/

Download PDF below

Regional Climate Quarterly (unl.edu)

February 2023 Climate Summary

February 2023 Climate Summary

Mountains of eastern Wyoming, Photo Courtesy of Gannon Rush

Regional Breakdown

February in the High Plains had it all. From severe weather to snowstorms, nothing was off the table.


Snow continued to pile up in the Dakotas, Wyoming, and parts of Nebraska, leading to numerous impacts. Much of South Dakota was shut down due to the storm in late February, with up to 16 inches (40.64 cm) reported in Huron and 44 mph (71 km/h) wind gusts in Sioux Falls. Towards the end of the month, the first severe weather outbreak of the year occurred in parts of southern and eastern Kansas. A tornado occurred on the 26th, with a weak EF-0 causing damage to the town of Liberal. With the same storm system, the winds were exceptionally strong. A wind gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) was recorded near the town of Hodgeman, with numerous reports of wind damage that day.


While temperatures were close to normal for the southern part of the region in part to a cold start, the rest of the month was predominantly above-normal. This has led plants to begin blooming much earlier than expected. The plants that have bloomed are highly susceptible to freezing temperatures that may still occur.

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (left) and percent of normal precipitation (right) for February 2023 in the High Plains region. Maps produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Precipitation and Water Resources

Precipitation was spotty this past month, however, the precipitation that did occur was well above-normal. Both ends of the spectrum occurred this month with near-record dryness and wetness. Despite still being meteorological winter, severe weather was present this month.


Winter storms continued to impact the northern parts of the region, with Wyoming and the Dakotas significantly impacted. Rawlins, Wyoming, recorded their 2nd wettest month with 1.67 inches (42.42 cm). Although the official station does not track snowfall, a nearby station reported over 34 inches (86.36 cm) of snow in February. Bismarck, North Dakota, and Huron, South Dakota, ranked 8th snowiest with over 15 inches (38.10 cm) in both locations. Opposite of this wetness, Akron, Colorado, was bone dry, recording a mere trace of precipitation this month to tie for the driest.


With the conclusion of February, the meteorological winter has ended. In a complete turnaround from last year, many places recorded near-record precipitation and snowfall. Multiple locations in Nebraska and Wyoming recorded their wettest and snowiest winters. Valentine, Nebraska crushed its previous snow record by nearly 14 inches (35.56 cm), with 56.4 inches
(143.26 cm) observed.


As of March 1st, mountain snowpack continued to be in great shape. Most basins are slightly above normal, outside the South Platte Basin in Wyoming and the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. Snowpack is deep for spring runoff, which is beneficial to the current drought conditions.

Above: Total precipitation in inches (top) and departure from normal precipitation in inches (bottom) for February 2023. These maps are produced by HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Temperatures

Temperatures this past month were, for the most part, near to below normal for the region. Parts of western Wyoming and northwestern Colorado were 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) or more below normal.


Temperatures were well below normal across parts of Wyoming, with Rawlins and Lander ranking as the 10th coldest on record. The town of Farson had a brutal month, with an average temperature of 1.6 degrees F (-16.9 degrees C). The high temperature only surpassed 32 degrees F (0 degrees C) in only two days in February.


While temperatures were chilly in Wyoming, Kansas had milder temperatures. Many locations recorded ten or more days of 60 degrees F (15.6 degrees C), while the town of Lakin reached 80 degrees F (26.7 degrees C) on the 27th.

Drought Conditions

Drought improvement continued into February in response to the significant wetness this winter. While conditions did slightly deteriorate this past month, it was very isolated. Overall, there was a 2.4 percent decrease in D0 to D4 (abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions).


The continuous onslaught of winter storms has greatly improved the drought situation across the central and northern parts of the region. Both South Dakota and Wyoming observed a nearly 11 percent decrease in D2 to D4 (severe to exceptional drought) this past month, while Kansas experienced an 11 percent reduction in D0-D4. Elsewhere in the region, other improvements and degradation were observed. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook for March, drought conditions will improve in eastern South Dakota and western Wyoming.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation
Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor
information, please see: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions are likely to weaken and transition into ENSO-neutral this spring. A La Niña advisory is currently in effect. For more information, visit  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood outlook indicates elevated chances of Moderate Flooding in the eastern parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota through the end of May. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be limited across the region through June.

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of below-normal temperatures across the northern United States, while above-normal temperatures are favored for the southern and eastern states. Increased chances of below-normal temperatures are present in North Dakota, while above-normal temperatures are slightly favored in Colorado.

Precipitation

The outlook for the next three months indicates below-normal precipitation across the southwestern parts of the United States and above-normal chances across the northeastern and midwestern portions. The majority of Colorado slightly leans towards below-normal precipitation, while the rest of the region has equal chances.

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on February 28th indicates that improvements to drought conditions will continue across the majority of the region.

Station Summaries: By the Number

Download PDF Below

Climate Summary (unl.edu)

January 2023 Climate Summary

January 2023 Climate Summary

Foothills of eastern Wyoming, Photo Courtesy of Gannon Rush

Regional Breakdown

After below-normal precipitation in the High Plains for most of 2022, the new year began with record-breaking wetness. Many locations in the central part of the region eclipsed or ranked in the top 10 for both precipitation and snowfall.

The winter of 2022-2023 has been very beneficial to parts of Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, and northeastern Colorado. Valentine, Nebraska has already recorded their wettest and snowiest winter on record, with nearly 10 inches (25.4 cm) of snowfall and 1 inch (2.54 mm) of precipitation more than the previous record. While this wetness has impacted places affected by drought in 2022, the changes in drought conditions have been slow to improve due to the severity.

Strong winds once again reared their head, this time combining with the winter weather. Multiple times during the month, both I-80 and I-25 were closed in Wyoming due to high winds and winter storms, or a combination of both. Several large accidents took place during the month, with the largest being a 44-vehicle pileup on the 28th to the west of Laramie.

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (left) and percent of normal precipitation (right) for January 2023 in the High Plains region. Maps
produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Precipitation and Water Resources

Several winter storms impacted the drought-stricken central part of the region this past month, leading to numerous precipitation records being broken. While many locations were above 200 percent of their normal precipitation, North Dakota and the northern portions of South Dakota missed out on this beneficial precipitation.

Records were not only broken but shattered in parts of Nebraska and Wyoming. In Nebraska, monthly precipitation records were eclipsed by nearly 0.50 inches (12.70 mm) in Scottsbluff and Valentine, while many other locations like North Platte and Grand Island ranked in the top 10. The state of Wyoming experienced the brunt of these storms, with Casper, Lander, Riverton, and Rawlins surpassing their record. On the opposite end of the spectrum, North Dakota missed out, and Grand Forks ranked in the top 10 driest (0.90 inches; 22.86 mm).

As of January 31st, the mountain snowpack is in great shape. Most basins are near normal, with several reporting well above-normal snowpack. The only basins slightly below normal are the South Platte in Wyoming and Arkansas in Colorado. The several rounds of winter storms this month greatly improved the drought situation, with runoff likely to be in good shape this spring.

Above: Total precipitation in inches (top) and departure from normal
precipitation in inches (bottom) for January 2023. These maps are produced by HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Temperatures

Temperatures varied across the region, with areas ranging from 8 degrees F (4.4 degrees C) below normal to 6 degrees F (3.3 degrees C) above normal. Despite the wide fluctuation in temperature, no major locations ranked in the top 10.

Despite the overall lack of monthly records broken in the region, it was not a quiet month. Like December, January started with warmer temperatures while cooler temperatures dominated at the end. Temperatures reached 74 degrees F (23.3 degrees C) on the 2nd in Chaunte, Kansas. Not only were the temperatures well above normal, but they also lingered throughout the month. Ten days in Chanute were over 60 degrees F (15.6 degrees C) which tied for the second most in the month of January. The end of the month brought bitter temperatures throughout the region. Temperatures reached below –40 degrees F (-40 degrees C) in the mountainous parts of Colorado and Wyoming.

Drought Conditions

After back-to-back months of above-normal precipitation, drought conditions have started to finally improve. Some areas in the Dakotas and along the southern Front Range of the Rockies missed out on the much-needed precipitation, with conditions deteriorating as a result. Overall, there was a 3 percent decrease in D0 to D4 (abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions).

Although North Dakota missed out on the precipitation this past month, drought conditions improved after the near-record snowfall in December. The state experienced a 12 percent reduction in D2 (severe drought) in response, however, nearly 80 percent of the state is still engulfed in D1 (moderate drought). Wyoming greatly benefited this month, with an 11 percent reduction in D0-D4 in the state. Elsewhere in the region, other improvements and degradation were observed. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook for January, drought conditions will improve in southeastern Kansas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation
Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor
information, please see: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions are likely to weaken and transition into ENSO-neutral this spring. A La Niña advisory is currently in effect. For more information, visit  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood outlook indicates elevated chances of Minor Flooding in the eastern parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota through the end of April. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be limited across the region through May.

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of below-normal temperatures across the northern United States, while above-normal temperatures are favored for the southern and northeastern states. Increased chances of below-normal temperatures are present in the Dakotas and the northern portion of Wyoming.

Precipitation

The outlook for the next three months indicates below-normal precipitation across the southwestern parts of the United States and above-normal chances across the northwestern and midwestern portions. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored in North Dakota and northwestern Wyoming. Drought-stricken Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska all are slightly favored for below-normal precipitation.

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on January 31st indicates that improvements to drought conditions will continue in the Dakotas while deteriorating in southern Colorado.

Station Summaries: By the Number

Download PDF Below

Climate Summary (unl.edu)

December 2022 Climate Summary

December 2022 Climate Summary

Medicine Bow National Forest, Photo Courtesy of Gannon Rush

Regional Breakdown

2022 will be remembered as the year of unusually high winds in the High Plains. After beginning the year with near-record strong winds, the final month brought similar conditions.


Early in December, winds gusted over 40 mph (64.4 km/h) in northwestern Kansas. With how significant the drought is in that area; large amounts of dust were picked up by the strong winds. The blowing dust led to a multi-vehicle accident and unfortunately, one person perished.


Winds were not only prevalent at the beginning of the month but also contributed to likely one of the coldest spells on record for the region. An intense cold front moved through on the 21st, with many places dropping 40 degrees F (22.2 degrees C) in under an hour. This arctic outbreak not only brought cold temperatures but also extreme winds. Wind chills surpassed –70 degrees F (-56.7 degrees C) in Wyoming, while the rest of the region saw wind chills between –40 and –50 degrees F (-40 and –45.6 degrees C) due wind gusts well over 50 mph (80.5 km/h) in some places. Although wind chills records are hard to verify, many places likely experienced their record coldest wind chill. This system also brought snow, with much of the region experiencing a white Christmas this year.

Above: Departure from 1991-2020 normal temperature (left) and percent of normal precipitation (right) for December 2022 in the High Plains region. Maps
produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center and are available at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Precipitation and Water Resources

December precipitation was much above-normal for the northern part of the region due to several winter storms, however, the drought-stricken areas along the Front Range of the Rockies and western Kansas missed this beneficial precipitation again. Many locations recorded their top 10 wettest
and snowiest months on record.


With mounting dryness from the past several months, these winter storms could not have been more beneficial. Northern Nebraska benefited greatly, with Chadron and Valentine observing their record-wettest month. Valentine also recorded their 3rd snowiest month and nearly broke the record, with 22.3 inches (56.64 cm) of snow. Across the Dakotas, numerous locations observed near-record precipitation and snowfall. Pierre and Sisseton ranked in the top 5 wettest and snowiest, while the majority of South Dakota ranked in the top 10 wettest. Bismarck, North Dakota followed up a very snowy November by recording their 2nd December, with 30 inches (76.2 cm) of snow falling.


At the beginning of the month, much of the region was near record lows for soil moisture. While the southern part of the region missed out, much of the region greatly benefited from the precipitation this past month.


While it is still early into the season, the mountain snowpack is in good shape. The majority of the basins are at or near average. This is favorable for improving streamflow conditions, as they are incredibly low throughout the drought-stricken southern Plains. The Corps of Engineers announced
that releases from Gavins Point Dam will reach wintertime levels by mid-December.

Above: Total precipitation in inches (top) and departure from normal
precipitation in inches (bottom) for December 2022. These maps are produced by HPRCC and can be found on the Current Climate Summary
Maps page at: http://hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current

Temperatures

The first half of the month began with warmer temperatures, however, things rapidly changed in the back half. A vigorous low-pressure system led to significant temperature drops and record cold. Overall, most of the region ended with below to well below normal temperatures.


After enjoying normal to above-normal temperatures for the first part of the month, the region experienced dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills. Many locations experienced record temperature drops on the afternoon of the 21st after a remarkable cold front advanced across the central United States. Cheyenne, Wyoming dropped 40 degrees F (22.2 degrees C) from 43 degrees F (6.1 degrees C) to 3 degrees F (-16.1 degrees C) in just 30 minutes, beating the previous record of 37 degrees F (20.6 degrees C) in an hour. Temperatures continued to drop, with the thermometer falling a total of 51 degrees F (28.3 degrees C) in two hours. Combined with high winds, dangerous and record wind chills were present across much of the region for the next few days. Temperatures rebounded, with Cheyenne reaching 57 degrees F (13.9 degrees C) on the 27th.

Drought Conditions

The record to near-record wetness across the northern part of the region eased drought conditions. In the southern portions, the precipitation deficits continued to increase and further elevated the situation. Overall, there were minimal changes in D0 to D4 (abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions).


The multiple winter storms led to large-scale improvements in the Dakotas. South Dakota observed a 26 percent decrease in D1-D4 (moderate to exceptional drought) after multiple locations in the state were in the top 10 snowiest December. The area coverage of extreme drought (D3) was
reduced by almost 10 percent and is now limited to a small portion in the southeastern part of the state. While D4 was trimmed slightly in southeastern Kansas, it was expanded in the northwestern part of the state and is now connected to the area of D4 in southwestern Nebraska. Elsewhere in the region, other improvements and degradation were observed.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced as a joint effort of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA), National Drought Mitigation
Center, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For current Drought Monitor
information, please see: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Climate Outlooks

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions are likely to continue through the end of the year. A La Niña advisory is currently in effect. For more information, visit  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The National Weather Service’s long-range flood
outlook indicates a low probability of Minor Flooding in eastern Kansas through February. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire potential will be limited across the region through next year.

The seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook presented below combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and when applicable, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To learn more about these outlooks, please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  

Temperature

The three-month temperature outlook shows an increased chance of above-normal temperatures in the southern part of the United States, while below-normal temperatures are favored in the northwestern part. Across the High Plains there are equal chances of above-, below-, and near-normal temperatures across much of the region. The Dakotas and parts of Wyoming have increased chances of below-normal temperatures.

Precipitation

The outlook for the next three months indicates below-normal precipitation across central parts of the United States. Across the High Plains, there are equal chances of above-, below-, and near normal precipitation in North Dakota. The rest of the region has increased chances of below-normal precipitation.

Drought

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook released on December 15th indicates that drought conditions will likely improve across the northern part of the region. Opposite of this, development is likely in southern Colorado.

Station Summaries: By the Number

Download PDF Below

Climate Summary (unl.edu)